The victory of Joe Biden within the 2020 US presidential election outlines a number of challenges for Mexico-United States relations. Biden intends to rebuild U.S. relations with its allies, rejoin the Paris local weather settlement, promote financial safety and restore American credibility overseas. Even when these guarantees don’t particularly goal Mexico, it’s clear that Biden’s broader agenda will demand a better negotiation capability in several points and ranges of the Mexican authorities. Relations with a Biden administration can even be a private problem as the present Mexican President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (also called AMLO) from Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, developed a subordinated however collaborative relationship with the Trump administration. Certainly, López Obrador’s go to to Washington on July 8, 2019, was criticized as a supporting gesture to Trump’s candidacy as he didn’t additionally meet the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe R. Biden Jr. Moreover, López Obrador’s administration broke Mexican diplomatic custom by refusing to acknowledge the outcomes of the U.S. presidential elections till all authorized points are settled. His comparability between U.S. 2020 elections and Mexican 2006 elections can also open the ground for misunderstandings, because of the truth that Mexican elections in that 12 months had been accused of fraud (Cárdenas 2007).
The place of López Obrador has generated criticism each in Mexico and within the U.S., similar to journalists and public figures. It may possibly symbolize a delay in beginning negotiations with the brand new U.S. administration, foreshadowing implicit prices for Mexico-U.S. relations. Throughout Biden’s administration, Mexican authorities will face delicate points in its diplomatic agenda with the U.S., just like the USMCA origin guidelines for the auto business and new labor laws. Contemplating that U.S. contains 80% of Mexican exports, their financial relations dictates the way forward for Mexican economic system after the covid-19 pandemic. All these challenges demand a higher diploma of communication and cooperation between each nations.
The U.S. electoral marketing campaign in 2016 created a number of instabilities inside the Mexican political panorama. Donald Trump promised to construct a wall throughout the border and make Mexico pay for it. He additionally set out a harder migration coverage, and renegotiated the North America Free Commerce Settlement (NAFTA) with the intention to relocate American corporations again to america. Even when the previous Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto (from Partido Revolucionário Institucional) was underneath strain to answer all these threats, the uncertainty in relations with Mexico’s predominant commerce companion clearly contributed to decreasing his approval score and to facilitate the victory of López Obrador in 2018.
Renegotiating NAFTA and forcing Mexico to extend navy management over its Southern border to cease Central American immigration had been a few of the overseas coverage achievements of Trump’s administration. Secondly, regardless of the profound asymmetry between each nations, Trump confronted domestic opposition when he threatened to go away NAFTA, particularly from companies and border states. To manage migration and keep away from the imposition of tariffs, Mexico and U.S signed the Migration Safety Protocol, referred to as Programa Permanecer en México on January 2019. Beneath the MPP, asylum searching for migrants of non-Mexican nationality needed to wait in Mexico for his or her proceedings to validate earlier than getting into america. The Mexican authorities had dedicated to supply humanitarian help, together with well being care, authorized help and job alternatives. The cooperation with Mexico was mixed with robust U.S. Immigration protocols, similar to denial of naturalization. In accordance with the Pew Research Institute, arrests of migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border reached its highest level in 12 years.
It was anticipated that the collaboration of Mexico in migration would assist López Obrador’s administration to boost funds for his Comprehensive Development Plan, negotiated with El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras by way of the Financial Fee for Latin America and the Caribbean. Nevertheless, Lopez Obrador’s compromise with the U.S. on immigration hampered the likelihood for a multilateral management in Latin America. Traditionally, Mexican governments most popular to barter their strategic overseas coverage points bilaterally with American governments, since their pursuits are historically nearer to Mexican home politics.
Relating to commerce points, U.S., Canada and Mexico signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA) that substituted NAFTA on 2 July 2020. USMCA repositioned Mexico within the world U.S. technique to include China. To be able to lower the imports from overseas nations, the brand new settlement strengthened regional worth chains. Additionally, the settlement sought to implement Mexican labor requirements, that are included within the 1917 Mexican structure, however had been by no means totally applied. Additionally it is anticipated that the USMCA would assist the North American economies regrow after the covid-19 pandemic. Because of the important Mexican dependence on the U.S. economic system and the flamboyant persona of Donald Trump, López Obrador had little space to barter different points together with his northern neighbor. The agenda was circumscribed to conventional points, particularly migration and commerce, which can probably quickly change underneath the incoming Biden administration.
The economic system will probably be of essential significance in Mexico-U.S. relations underneath a Biden administration. The brand new USMCA regional worth content material for the auto business – from 62.5% to 75% of important components – goals to substitute incomes from different nations for these produced by the three members in North America. Nevertheless, the quantity of products that will probably be substituted is determined by a excessive degree cooperation and institutionalization. The measures per se should still not be sufficient to lower China’s participation in regional imports. The substitution of imports in North America additionally is determined by the way forward for U.S.-China relations. Biden promised to confront Chinese language abusive and unfair practices in world commerce and human rights violations. On this situation, Mexico could have a novel alternative to extend its participation in U.S. imports since it’s a competitor of China within the section of intermediate items like electronics and auto components. Additionally it is price noticing that Mexico had a commerce deficit with China of roughly US $75 billion in 2019.
One other problem to be confronted by the Biden administration would be the USMCA enforcement on Mexican working requirements, a historic demand from the Democratic Occasion. In accordance with the USMCA, new Labor Worth Content material (LVC) for the auto business, 40% of automobiles’ added worth should be manufactured by staff who obtain at the very least US$ 16 per hour. Contemplating that the Mexican nationwide common wage is approximately US $2 per hour, the LVC places strain on Mexico to vary its industrial coverage. Despite the fact that López Obrador has been advocating for a rise in minimal wage since 2018, it’s nonetheless inadequate to distinction labor outsourcing and the present nationwide poverty degree. There’s additionally the danger of corporations concentrating their excessive wage manufacturing in Canada and in america. Contemplating that 60% of the car manufacturing doesn’t have to observe the brand new laws, Mexico’s picture might be strengthened because the one in all an intermediate producer with low paid jobs if the nationwide authorities doesn’t undertake a extra constant industrial coverage. It means investing in high quality training, combating regional inequality, stimulating native manufacturing and selling analysis and growth.
It’s probably that the Mexico-U.S. agenda will probably be expanded – including atmosphere, democracy and human rights points. This new emphasis could improve US consideration on Mexican home politics. Some issues are nonetheless unclear, similar to the way forward for Mérida Initiative or the US collaboration on Plan de Desarrollo Integral. On migration, Biden promised to finish the Migration Safety Protocol and to revive U.S. asylum legal guidelines, probably altering the Mexican place in controlling Central American migration fomented by the Trump’s administration. To be able to face this agenda, the Mexican authorities should get together with the U.S. federal authorities, but additionally with native administrations. On this sense, the quicker López Obrador begins negotiations with the brand new US administration the higher the probabilities for bettering bilateral confidence. It is a essential alternative for Mexico to enhance nationwide labor laws and promote social growth.
Cárdenas, J. (2007) ‘El proceso electoral de 2006 y las reformas electorales necesarias’, Revista Mexicana de Derecho Constitucional, 16(1). https://revistas.juridicas.unam.mx/index.php/cuestiones-constitucionales/article/view/5787/7627.
Smart, C. (1998). The post-NAFTA political economic system: Mexico and the Western Hemisphere. Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State College.