Opposite to traditional mental knowledge there are usually not many good ones, however this packs some actual power:

Ranging from probabilistic simulations of seemingly presidential election outcomes which can be much like the output from election forecasting fashions, we calculate the probability of disputable, slim outcomes below the Electoral School. The chance that the Electoral School is determined by 20,000 ballots or fewer in a single, pivotal state is bigger than 1-in-10. Though it’s doable in precept for both system to generate extra danger of a disputable election end result, in observe the Electoral School right this moment is about 40 instances as seemingly as a Nationwide Common Vote to generate eventualities through which a small variety of ballots in a pivotal voting unit determines the Presidency.

And word this, which explains a great deal of the controversy and rationalizations — on either side:

This disputed-election danger is uneven throughout political events. It’s about twice as seemingly {that a} Democrat’s (quite than Republican’s) Electoral School victory in a detailed election might be overturned by a judicial resolution affecting lower than 1,000, 5,000, or 10,000 ballots in a single, pivotal state.

That’s from a new NBER working paper by Michael Geruso and Dean Spears.


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