This was emailed to me, however I’m not doing a double indent…in any case I worry the individual is likely to be proper…
“The prevailing sentiment is that the COVID pandemic is near over. The vaccines are after all miraculous however we’re not presently on an excellent trajectory.
- It’s increasingly clear that two photographs plus a booster of our present vaccines are the least one must have efficient medium-term safety. Virtually nowhere (least of all of the US) is on observe to achieve this type of protection. The messaging within the US stays mistaken, the place the CDC to this present day recommends boosters just for these aged 50 and older. Extra broadly, the institutional confusion round boosters exhibits that the adults should not but in cost.
- Although Delta arose within the spring, we’re nonetheless vaccinating (and boosting) folks with the unique Wuhan pressure. That is insane, and possibly meaningfully much less efficient, and but no one is up in arms about it.
- Extreme outbreaks are manifestly attainable even in exceptionally vaccinated populations, particularly when booster uptake is low. See: Singapore, Gibraltar, Ireland. One ought to assume that just about each a part of the US will see important waves earlier than COVID “ends”, no matter that seems to imply. Word that simply 60% of the US inhabitants is vaccinated as we speak with two doses.
- There’s early suggestive evidence from Israel that boosters could wane.
- Waning apart, it’s clear that breakthrough infections in boosted people should not unusual. Whereas the overwhelming majority of these infections should not extreme, this does imply that there’ll nonetheless be loads of mutagenesis.
- It’s unclear that longitudinal cross-immunity is powerful. Getting COVID is not enough to confer long-term safety. We most likely can’t simply “get this over with”, even when we’re keen to tolerate a lot of one-time deaths.
- The currently-breaking information about the South African Nu strain exhibits that arguments about how the spike protein is operating out of mutation search area are virtually definitely mistaken.
- Whereas the fog of warfare is thick proper now, the early information on Nu means that it might be an enormous deal. Even when it’s not, nevertheless, it has been apparent since we bought the vaccines that vaccine escape is a priority. You’ll be able to debate whether or not the chance of a vaccine escaping variant is 20% or 80%, however in any case we’d like efficient contingency plans in place. If we fail to reply successfully to Nu, that shall be a significantly larger institutional failure than something that occurred on the outset of the pandemic. We’ve had virtually two years because the first COVID case and one 12 months from the vaccine approvals to arrange. So I ask: what’s the plan for the vaccine-escaping variant?
On present developments, it appears like we’ll most likely want considered one of two issues to successfully finish the pandemic: (1) very efficient COVID therapeutics (paxlovid, molnupiravir, and fluvoxamine all being candidates however my guess is that none is a silver bullet) or (2) pan-coronavirus vaccines (with broader safety than what’s presently accessible).
It isn’t over but.
P.S. Has any U.S. well being physique really helpful the scientific use of fluvoxamine (an already-approved drug), or has the FDA given any steerage as to when it’d approve paxlovid? If not, can they define their reasoning? 1,600 folks died of COVID on Nov 24.”